I am coming off a nice win last week and I am looking to keep things rolling. The 3 of 4 rotation worked well for me, so I will go back to it this week.
It has been a while since I started my post with a preview of the Bills game; Anyone want to take a guess why? The Bills are ice-cold, and I don't have the heart to talk about them again this week. Let's just say "must-win" is an understatement. Still, I like their chance and a 1.8 Proline odd looks nice.
My favourite game of the week has taken a drastic change on the Proline odds. New England opened up as 1.5 point underdogs and are now sitting at 2.5 point favourites. Their Proline odd went from 2.5 to 2.1. However, based on the Proline Chart they are still a proper payout.
Apart from the odds, I think this is a great pick. New England is a better team, which is a good enough reason right there. Also, they were embarrassed by Miami in week 3, in what was Matt Cassell's first NFL start. Clearly he has improved since that game and is looking better every week. I know Miami is tough at home, but I simply can't see them sweeping the season series with New England. New England is still the defending AFC North champs, with or without Brady. This week is their chance to remind everyone the Dolphins are an overachieving team and won't be a factor when the playoff teams are determined.
The other game I like took a small drop on the Proline odds. Carolina heads into Atlanta paying 2.4. They opened at 2.5, but are still listed as the underdogs at 2.4. Carolina is a quiet 8-2 and has not been talked about very much this year. Most people are still waiting for Dallas to show they are the challengers of the Giants in the NFC this year. While everyone has been waiting on the Cowboys, the Panthers have proven they are the 2nd best team in the NFC. Their 8-2 record speaks for itself. The Falcons on the other hand are one of many overachieving teams this year. What really interests me in this game is Matt Ryan vs. the Carolina defense. The rookie QB has had success, but has not had to face a defense as tough as Carolina. This will be the game that shows why Matt Ryan is not quite ready to bring a team into the playoffs yet. I like Carolina paying 2.4, and I love them as 1.5 point underdogs.
I like Tennessee at home this week; I think the Jets will have a let-down after that huge win against New England.
I think the two best ties this week are IND/SD and GB/NWO. The Indy/San Diego game was a Proline Tie in 2007, and should be close again this year.
I know Arizona plays well at home, but I don't think they are in the same class as the Giants. Paying 1.7, the Giants could be a good Proline pick.
My ticket:
I am going to pick a 3 of 4 Proline rotation with,
New England 2.1
Carolina 2.4
Tennessee 1.6
Buffalo 1.8
However, I still have another day, which might be enough time for me to convince myself to replace one of those lower odds with a tie on the Indy/San Diego game.
I will also play a few Pointspread tickets, that will certainly revolve around New England giving up 2.5 points and Carolina getting 1.5.
Good luck with your Proline picks.
db
